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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 7

Kick-off

Sun 5 Oct 2025

14:00

Venue

St. James' Park

Competition

Premier League

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Newcastle Win

48%

Newcastle

2.08

25%

Draw

4.00

27%

Nottingham Forest

3.73

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.1%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.5%

Home win

1 – 0

9.0%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.72

Newcastle xG

Total xG

2.95

1.23

Nottingham Forest xG

48%
25%
27%
NewcastleDrawNottingham Forest

2.08

48%

Home win

4.00

25%

Draw

3.73

27%

Away win

Goals Markets

79%

Over 1.5

1.27

21%

Under 1.5

4.76

56%

Over 2.5

1.79

44%

Under 2.5

2.27

34%

Over 3.5

2.94

66%

Under 3.5

1.52

18%

Over 4.5

5.56

82%

Under 4.5

1.22

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

59%

BTTS Yes

1.71

41%

BTTS No

2.42

Clean Sheet

29%

Newcastle

3.42

18%

Nottingham Forest

5.56

Win to Nil

14%

Newcastle

7.10

5%

Nottingham Forest

20.73

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.3 6.5 4.0 1.6 0.5 0.1
1 9.0 11.1 6.8 2.8 0.9 0.2
2 7.7 9.5 5.9 2.4 0.7 0.2
3 4.4 5.4 3.3 1.4 0.4 0.1
4 1.9 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.2
5 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.716
λ Away (xG) 1.230
Total xG 2.946
League avg home goals 1.457
League avg away goals 1.203
Newcastle attack strength 1.094
Newcastle defence strength 1.069
Nottingham Forest attack strength 0.956
Nottingham Forest defence strength 1.076
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 44 / 44