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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Newcastle edge out Manchester City 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Newcastle beat Manchester City 2-1 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.17 xG and Manchester City 1.16 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Newcastle beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.07 / defence 0.98 against Manchester City attack 1.01 / defence 0.72, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newcastle 36% | Draw 28% | Manchester City 36%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 59%, Manchester City 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newcastle's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Manchester City's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.59 PPG, Manchester City 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newcastle win broke the near-deadlock. Manchester City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights