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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Newcastle run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ipswich.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Newcastle beat Ipswich 3-0 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 2.75 xG and Ipswich 1.27 xG, a combined 4.01. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ipswich landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.59 / defence 0.91 against Ipswich attack 0.98 / defence 1.19, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newcastle 68% | Draw 16% | Ipswich 15%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 69%, Ipswich 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newcastle's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Ipswich's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.68 PPG, Ipswich 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newcastle win broke the near-deadlock. Newcastle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights