Newcastle vs Fulham – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Newcastle at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Newcastle vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Newcastle and Fulham meet at St James’ Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 January 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Newcastle's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Newcastle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Newcastle have posted 4W 2D 4L at St James’ Park — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fulham (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Fulham have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Newcastle 5W, Fulham 3W, 0D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2026, ended 0–2 with Fulham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Newcastle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Fulham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newcastle 64% versus Fulham 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newcastle 62% | Fulham 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 1.09 xG and Fulham 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 0.910 / defence 1.083 | Fulham attack 0.768 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.170. Data: 47 Newcastle games / 47 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Newcastle 38% | Draw 30% | Fulham 32%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Fulham 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Newcastle as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Newcastle if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Newcastle 80% | Fulham 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newcastle vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: St James’ Park • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jan 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newcastle 38% | Draw 30% | Fulham 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Newcastle 1.09 / Fulham 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Newcastle attack 0.910 / def 1.083 | Fulham attack 0.768 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Newcastle xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Fulham xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newcastle vs Fulham kick off?
Newcastle vs Fulham is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 January 2027 at St James’ Park.
Where is Newcastle vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at St James’ Park.
What competition is Newcastle vs Fulham part of?
Newcastle vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Newcastle vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Newcastle a 38% chance of winning, Fulham a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Newcastle and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Newcastle vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Fulham?
Record (8 meetings): Newcastle 5W | Draws 0 | Fulham 3W.
What form are Newcastle and Fulham in?
Newcastle (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Fulham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Newcastle's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Fulham's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (0.77x) against Newcastle's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
38%
2.64
30%
3.31
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Newcastle xG
Total xG
2.06
0.97
Fulham xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
11%
9.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 12.4 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newcastle vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Newcastle and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Newcastle and 0.97 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Newcastle vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Newcastle have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 17W 9D 21L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Newcastle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fulham's form line: 17W 10D 20L from 47 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Newcastle against 1.30 for Fulham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Newcastle have posted 1.54 PPG from 24 outings (11W 4D 9L).
On the road, Fulham have gone 5W 7D 12L from 24 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Newcastle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Newcastle are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.19 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Newcastle have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newcastle
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newcastle and Fulham in coming into this match?
Newcastle have gone 17W 9D 21L in their last 47 games (1.28 PPG), while Fulham have gone 17W 10D 20L in their last 47 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newcastle at home or Fulham away?
Newcastle's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newcastle at home: 1.54 PPG; Fulham away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Newcastle won 1-4 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Newcastle have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Newcastle
0
Draws
3
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, Newcastle have won 5, Fulham have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Newcastle and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Fulham 2-0 Newcastle.
Who has won more matches between Newcastle and Fulham?
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Newcastle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fulham see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newcastle 75%, Fulham 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Newcastle) and 42% (Fulham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newcastle home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newcastle play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Newcastle's games and 50% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Newcastle vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Newcastle's matches and 42% of Fulham's.
Do Newcastle and Fulham tend to score early?
Newcastle have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Fulham in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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