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Prediction vindicated as Newcastle edge out Fulham 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Newcastle beat Fulham 2-1 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.99 xG and Fulham 1.07 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.12 / defence 0.98 against Fulham attack 0.92 / defence 1.23, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newcastle 58% | Draw 22% | Fulham 20%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 56%, Fulham 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newcastle's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Fulham's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.63 PPG, Fulham 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newcastle win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights