🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Everton edge out Newcastle 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton beat Newcastle 2-3 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.18 xG and Everton 1.38 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Newcastle beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Everton outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.19 / defence 1.19 against Everton attack 0.91 / defence 0.71, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newcastle 29% | Draw 32% | Everton 38%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 62%, Everton 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newcastle's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Everton's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.57 PPG, Everton 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Newcastle (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights