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Shock result as Everton defy the odds to beat Newcastle 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton beat Newcastle 0-1 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 38, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.67 xG and Everton 0.91 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Newcastle fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.53 / defence 0.79 against Everton attack 0.84 / defence 0.74, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newcastle 55% | Draw 24% | Everton 20%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Everton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 67%, Everton 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newcastle's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Everton's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Newcastle arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Everton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Newcastle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Everton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights