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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Newcastle run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Crystal Palace.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Newcastle beat Crystal Palace 5-0 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 2.05 xG and Crystal Palace 1.42 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Newcastle beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Crystal Palace landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.42 / defence 0.99 against Crystal Palace attack 1.00 / defence 1.00, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newcastle 52% | Draw 21% | Crystal Palace 26%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 68%, Crystal Palace 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newcastle's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Crystal Palace's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.68 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newcastle win broke the near-deadlock. Newcastle (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights