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Prediction vindicated as Newcastle edge out Burnley 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Newcastle beat Burnley 2-1 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 2.75 xG and Burnley 1.21 xG, a combined 3.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.14 / defence 0.95 against Burnley attack 0.99 / defence 1.57, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newcastle 70% | Draw 16% | Burnley 14%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 62%, Burnley 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newcastle's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Burnley's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.63 PPG, Burnley 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newcastle win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights