🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Newcastle cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Brighton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Newcastle beat Brighton 3-1 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.35 xG and Brighton 1.61 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Newcastle beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.10 / defence 1.27 against Brighton attack 1.01 / defence 0.88, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newcastle 31% | Draw 26% | Brighton 42%, with Brighton to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Newcastle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 62%, Brighton 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newcastle's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Brighton's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.50 PPG, Brighton 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newcastle win broke the near-deadlock. Newcastle (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm. Brighton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights