Newcastle 2-3 Brentford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Newcastle at 44% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Newcastle vs Brentford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Newcastle welcome Brentford to St. James' Park in Premier League (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 7 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Newcastle stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Newcastle's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Newcastle are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Brentford — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Brentford have posted 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Newcastle 1.40 PPG, Brentford 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Newcastle: 6 wins from 9 H2H matches against 2 for Brentford, with 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.1 per game across the 9 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2025, ended Newcastle 1–3 Brentford — a Brentford win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Newcastle and goals — 6 wins from 9 H2H matches and an average of 4.1 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Newcastle in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Brentford in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newcastle 53% versus Brentford 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newcastle 60% | Brentford 56%). Note also that Brentford surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Newcastle recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 1.70 xG and Brentford 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 1.157 / defence 1.104 | Brentford attack 0.939 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.262. Data: built from Newcastle's last 62 games and Brentford's last 62.
Result probabilities: Newcastle 44% | Draw 29% | Brentford 27%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 2.29 | Draw 3.39 | Brentford 3.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.70 / 1.31) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Newcastle as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Newcastle 6 wins from 9 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Newcastle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Newcastle's last 10 home games and Brentford's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.1 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Newcastle 70% (last 10 home games) | Brentford 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newcastle vs Brentford | Competition: Premier League, matchday 25 | Venue: St. James' Park • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newcastle 44% | Draw 29% | Brentford 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Newcastle 1.70 / Brentford 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Newcastle attack 1.157 / def 1.104 | Brentford attack 0.939 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Newcastle xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Brentford xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Newcastle vs Brentford FAQs
What time does Newcastle vs Brentford kick off?
Newcastle vs Brentford kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at St. James' Park.
What was the final score in Newcastle vs Brentford?
Newcastle 2 - 3 Brentford.
Where is Newcastle vs Brentford being played?
The match is being played at St. James' Park.
What competition is Newcastle vs Brentford part of?
Newcastle vs Brentford is a Premier League fixture (matchday 25) (England).
Who is favourite to win Newcastle vs Brentford?
Our statistical model gives Newcastle a 44% chance of winning, Brentford a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Brentford?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Newcastle and Brentford will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Newcastle vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Newcastle's attack rating (1.16) and Brentford's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brentford's attack versus Newcastle's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Newcastle's last 62 games and Brentford's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
44%
2.29
29%
3.39
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Newcastle xG
Total xG
3.01
1.31
Brentford xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.46
5%
20.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Newcastle vs Brentford Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Newcastle vs Brentford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Newcastle and Brentford expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Newcastle and 1.31 for Brentford, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Newcastle vs Brentford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Newcastle's recent record stands at 29W 12D 21L from 62 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Brentford, meanwhile, have gone 27W 11D 24L across 62 games — 1.48 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Newcastle on 1.60 PPG, Brentford on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Newcastle have managed 19W 4D 8L from their last 31 home games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brentford's away record stands at 11W 4D 16L across their last 31 away games, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Newcastle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Newcastle are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Brentford are on 1.65 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newcastle
Blended
Brentford
Blended
Newcastle (Home) vs Brentford (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Newcastle
Blended
Brentford
Blended
❓ Newcastle vs Brentford Form FAQs
What form are Newcastle and Brentford in coming into this match?
Newcastle have gone 29W 12D 21L in their last 62 games (1.60 PPG), while Brentford have gone 27W 11D 24L in their last 62 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newcastle at home or Brentford away?
Newcastle's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newcastle at home: 1.97 PPG; Brentford away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Newcastle or Brentford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Brentford in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Brentford have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Oct 2022, when Newcastle won Newcastle 5-1 Brentford.
Newcastle's record when hosting Brentford specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Newcastle
1
Draws
3
Brentford
Recent Meetings
❓ Newcastle vs Brentford H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Brentford?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Newcastle have won 6, Brentford have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Newcastle and Brentford last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Newcastle 2-3 Brentford.
Who has won more matches between Newcastle and Brentford?
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Newcastle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Brentford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newcastle 52%, Brentford 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Newcastle) and 52% (Brentford). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Newcastle keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Brentford in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newcastle home games / Brentford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Newcastle vs Brentford Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Newcastle and Brentford matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Newcastle's recent matches and 52% of Brentford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Newcastle and Brentford matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Newcastle's matches and 52% of Brentford's.
Do Newcastle and Brentford matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Newcastle's recent matches and 81% of Brentford's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Brentford defy the odds to beat Newcastle 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brentford beat Newcastle 2-3 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.70 xG and Brentford 1.31 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Brentford outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.16 / defence 1.10 against Brentford attack 0.94 / defence 0.98, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newcastle 44% | Draw 29% | Brentford 27%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Brentford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 60%, Brentford 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newcastle's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Brentford's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.60 PPG, Brentford 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brentford win broke the near-deadlock. Newcastle (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brentford (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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