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Prediction vindicated as Bournemouth edge out Newcastle 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bournemouth beat Newcastle 1-2 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.65 xG and Bournemouth 1.73 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.17 / defence 1.27 against Bournemouth attack 1.08 / defence 1.03, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newcastle 35% | Draw 26% | Bournemouth 38%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 63%, Bournemouth 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newcastle's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Bournemouth's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.54 PPG, Bournemouth 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Newcastle (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights