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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Newcastle run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Aston Villa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Newcastle beat Aston Villa 3-0 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.98 xG and Aston Villa 1.11 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Newcastle beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Aston Villa landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.04 / defence 0.84 against Aston Villa attack 0.88 / defence 1.23, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newcastle 56% | Draw 25% | Aston Villa 19%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 66%, Aston Villa 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newcastle's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Aston Villa's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.56 PPG, Aston Villa 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newcastle win broke the near-deadlock. Newcastle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Aston Villa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights