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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Newcastle cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Manchester United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Newcastle beat Manchester United 0-2 at Old Trafford, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Manchester United 1.59 xG and Newcastle 1.87 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Manchester United fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Manchester United attack 1.04 / defence 1.05 against Newcastle attack 1.21 / defence 1.02, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Manchester United 31% | Draw 26% | Newcastle 43%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Manchester United 62%, Newcastle 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Manchester United's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Newcastle's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Manchester United 1.46 PPG, Newcastle 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newcastle win broke the near-deadlock. Manchester United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Newcastle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights