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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Manchester United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Manchester City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Manchester United beat Manchester City 2-0 at Old Trafford, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Manchester United 1.30 xG and Manchester City 1.72 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Manchester City landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Manchester United attack 1.05 / defence 1.08 against Manchester City attack 1.27 / defence 0.82, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Manchester United 27% | Draw 29% | Manchester City 45%, with Manchester City to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Manchester United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Manchester United 54%, Manchester City 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Manchester United's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Manchester City's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Manchester City arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Manchester United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Manchester United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Manchester City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights