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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 22

Kick-off

Sat 17 Jan 2026

12:30

Venue

Old Trafford

Competition

Premier League

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Manchester City Win

27%

Manchester United

3.75

29%

Draw

3.50

45%

Manchester City

2.24

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.9%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 2

9.4%

Away win

0 – 1

8.4%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.30

Manchester United xG

Total xG

3.02

1.72

Manchester City xG

27%
29%
45%
Manchester UnitedDrawManchester City

3.75

27%

Home win

3.50

29%

Draw

2.24

45%

Away win

Goals Markets

80%

Over 1.5

1.25

20%

Under 1.5

5.00

58%

Over 2.5

1.72

42%

Under 2.5

2.38

36%

Over 3.5

2.78

64%

Under 3.5

1.56

19%

Over 4.5

5.26

81%

Under 4.5

1.23

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

62%

BTTS Yes

1.61

38%

BTTS No

2.64

Clean Sheet

18%

Manchester United

5.56

27%

Manchester City

3.67

Win to Nil

5%

Manchester United

20.85

12%

Manchester City

8.21

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.9 8.4 7.2 4.1 1.8 0.6
1 6.4 10.9 9.4 5.4 2.3 0.8
2 4.1 7.1 6.1 3.5 1.5 0.5
3 1.8 3.1 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.2
4 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1
5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.301
λ Away (xG) 1.716
Total xG 3.017
League avg home goals 1.508
League avg away goals 1.253
Manchester United attack strength 1.046
Manchester United defence strength 1.081
Manchester City attack strength 1.267
Manchester City defence strength 0.825
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 59 / 59