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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Manchester United edge out Liverpool 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Manchester United beat Liverpool 3-2 at Old Trafford, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Manchester United 1.74 xG and Liverpool 1.38 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Manchester United beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Manchester United attack 1.20 / defence 1.02 against Liverpool attack 1.10 / defence 1.00, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Manchester United 45% | Draw 26% | Liverpool 29%, with Manchester United to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Manchester United 56%, Liverpool 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Manchester United's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Liverpool's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.43. Form was overturned, with Manchester United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Manchester United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm. Liverpool (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights