🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Leeds defy the odds to beat Manchester United 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leeds beat Manchester United 1-2 at Old Trafford, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Manchester United 2.01 xG and Leeds 0.98 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Manchester United fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Leeds outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Manchester United attack 1.29 / defence 0.94 against Leeds attack 0.83 / defence 1.13, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Manchester United 60% | Draw 24% | Leeds 16%, with Manchester United to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Leeds win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Manchester United 55%, Leeds 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Manchester United's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Leeds's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Manchester United 1.41 PPG, Leeds 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leeds win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights