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Shock result as Manchester United defy the odds to beat Chelsea 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Manchester United beat Chelsea 2-1 at Old Trafford, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Manchester United 1.36 xG and Chelsea 1.73 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Manchester United attack 0.98 / defence 1.10 against Chelsea attack 1.32 / defence 1.01, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Manchester United 30% | Draw 23% | Chelsea 46%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Manchester United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Manchester United 50%, Chelsea 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Manchester United's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Chelsea's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Chelsea arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Manchester United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights