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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Manchester United and Bournemouth share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Manchester United and Bournemouth finished level at 4-4 at Old Trafford, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Manchester United 2.23 xG and Bournemouth 1.45 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Manchester United beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bournemouth outscored their 1.45 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Manchester United attack 1.03 / defence 0.98 against Bournemouth attack 1.16 / defence 1.39, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Manchester United 55% | Draw 20% | Bournemouth 25%, with Manchester United to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Manchester United 55%, Bournemouth 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Manchester United's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Bournemouth's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Manchester United 1.26 PPG, Bournemouth 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Manchester United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bournemouth (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights