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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Manchester City edge out Wolves 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Manchester City beat Wolves 1-0 at Etihad Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Manchester City 2.07 xG and Wolves 1.25 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Manchester City fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Wolves landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Manchester City attack 1.35 / defence 0.93 against Wolves attack 0.95 / defence 1.03, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Manchester City 56% | Draw 21% | Wolves 23%, with Manchester City to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Manchester City 64%, Wolves 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Manchester City's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Wolves's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Manchester City arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Manchester City (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Wolves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights