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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Manchester United defy the odds to beat Manchester City 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Manchester United beat Manchester City 1-2 at Etihad Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Manchester City 1.74 xG and Manchester United 1.09 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Manchester United outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Manchester City attack 1.19 / defence 1.03 against Manchester United attack 0.75 / defence 0.89, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Manchester City 51% | Draw 27% | Manchester United 22%, with Manchester City to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Manchester United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Manchester City 66%, Manchester United 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Manchester City's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Manchester United's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Manchester City arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.49. Form was overturned, with Manchester United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Manchester City (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights