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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Manchester City run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Fulham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Manchester City beat Fulham 3-0 at Etihad Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Manchester City 2.09 xG and Fulham 0.84 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Manchester City beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fulham landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Manchester City attack 1.30 / defence 0.72 against Fulham attack 0.92 / defence 1.09, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Manchester City 64% | Draw 24% | Fulham 12%, with Manchester City to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Manchester City 60%, Fulham 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Manchester City's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Fulham's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Manchester City arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.40. That form edge translated into the three points. Manchester City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights