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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Manchester City run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Crystal Palace.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Manchester City beat Crystal Palace 3-0 at Etihad Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Manchester City 2.31 xG and Crystal Palace 0.83 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Crystal Palace landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Manchester City attack 1.40 / defence 0.75 against Crystal Palace attack 0.91 / defence 1.14, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Manchester City 70% | Draw 20% | Crystal Palace 11%, with Manchester City to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Manchester City 62%, Crystal Palace 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Manchester City's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Crystal Palace's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Manchester City arrived the stronger side — 1.99 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Manchester City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights