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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Manchester City cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bournemouth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Manchester City beat Bournemouth 3-1 at Etihad Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Manchester City 2.38 xG and Bournemouth 1.27 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Manchester City attack 1.31 / defence 0.81 against Bournemouth attack 1.33 / defence 1.21, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Manchester City 62% | Draw 19% | Bournemouth 19%, with Manchester City to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Manchester City 57%, Bournemouth 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Manchester City's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Bournemouth's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Manchester City 1.85 PPG, Bournemouth 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Manchester City win broke the near-deadlock. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights