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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Manchester City cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bournemouth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Manchester City beat Bournemouth 3-1 at Etihad Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Manchester City 1.84 xG and Bournemouth 1.42 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Manchester City beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Manchester City attack 1.32 / defence 0.87 against Bournemouth attack 1.19 / defence 0.97, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Manchester City 48% | Draw 23% | Bournemouth 30%, with Manchester City to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Manchester City 62%, Bournemouth 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Manchester City's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Bournemouth's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Manchester City arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bournemouth (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights