Liverpool 4-2 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Liverpool at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Liverpool vs Tottenham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Tottenham travel to Anfield to take on Liverpool. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Liverpool have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Liverpool's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Anfield this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Tottenham — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Tottenham have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Liverpool carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Liverpool, 1 for Tottenham and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with Tottenham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Liverpool trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Tottenham trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Liverpool 60% and Tottenham 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Liverpool 62% | Tottenham 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liverpool 2.11 xG and Tottenham 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liverpool attack 1.154 / defence 0.813 | Tottenham attack 0.953 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.772 / away 1.476. Data: 73 Liverpool games / 72 Tottenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Liverpool 59% | Draw 22% | Tottenham 19%. Fair-value odds: Liverpool 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Tottenham 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Liverpool (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.11 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Liverpool as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Liverpool 80% | Tottenham 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liverpool vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Anfield • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liverpool 59% | Draw 22% | Tottenham 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 61% | xG Liverpool 2.11 / Tottenham 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Liverpool attack 1.154 / def 0.813 | Tottenham attack 0.953 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.772 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Liverpool xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Tottenham xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Liverpool vs Tottenham kick off?
Liverpool vs Tottenham kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Anfield.
What was the final score in Liverpool vs Tottenham?
Liverpool 4 - 2 Tottenham.
Where is Liverpool vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at Anfield.
What competition is Liverpool vs Tottenham part of?
Liverpool vs Tottenham is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Liverpool vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives Liverpool a 59% chance of winning, Tottenham a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Liverpool and Tottenham will score (BTTS).
Will Liverpool vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Tottenham?
Record (5 meetings): Liverpool 2W | Draws 2 | Tottenham 1W.
What form are Liverpool and Tottenham in?
Liverpool (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Tottenham (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Liverpool's attack rating (1.15) and Tottenham's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 2.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tottenham's attack versus Liverpool's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
59%
1.70
22%
4.53
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Liverpool xG
Total xG
3.25
1.14
Tottenham xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
12%
8.22
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
2%
42.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Liverpool vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Liverpool and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Liverpool and 1.14 for Tottenham, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Liverpool vs Tottenham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Liverpool's recent record stands at 41W 18D 13L from 72 games, a 1.96 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-D in the last five.
Tottenham, meanwhile, have gone 36W 12D 24L across 72 games — 1.67 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Liverpool on 1.96 PPG, Tottenham on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Liverpool have managed 26W 8D 2L from 36 games — 2.39 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.96 PPG overall — Liverpool are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Tottenham's away record stands at 12W 11D 13L across 36 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Liverpool are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 1.90 scored and 1.62 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Tottenham in 68%.
Last 72 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liverpool
Current Season
Tottenham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Liverpool and Tottenham in coming into this match?
Liverpool have gone 41W 18D 13L in their last 72 games (1.96 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 36W 12D 24L in their last 72 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liverpool at home or Tottenham away?
Liverpool's home record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liverpool at home: 2.39 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Liverpool or Tottenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Tottenham in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2025, when Liverpool won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Liverpool's record when hosting Tottenham specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Liverpool
3
Draws
1
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Tottenham?
From 10 meetings on record, Liverpool have won 6, Tottenham have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Liverpool and Tottenham last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Liverpool 1-1 Tottenham.
Who has won more matches between Liverpool and Tottenham?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Liverpool 58%, Tottenham 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Liverpool and 67% for Tottenham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Liverpool keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liverpool home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Liverpool play Tottenham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Liverpool's games and 64% of Tottenham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Liverpool vs Tottenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Liverpool's matches and 67% of Tottenham's.
Liverpool cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Tottenham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat Tottenham 4-2 at Anfield, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 2.11 xG and Tottenham 1.14 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Liverpool beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tottenham outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.15 / defence 0.81 against Tottenham attack 0.95 / defence 1.03, drawn from 73/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Liverpool 59% | Draw 22% | Tottenham 19%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 62%, Tottenham 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liverpool's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Tottenham's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Liverpool 1.96 PPG, Tottenham 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Liverpool win broke the near-deadlock. Liverpool (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tottenham (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.