Liverpool vs Fulham – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Liverpool and Fulham share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liverpool and Fulham finished level at 2-2 at Anfield, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 1.43 xG and Fulham 0.81 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Fulham outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.10 / defence 0.60 against Fulham attack 0.97 / defence 0.79, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liverpool 50% | Draw 30% | Fulham 20%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 64%, Fulham 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liverpool's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Fulham's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Liverpool (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights