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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Liverpool edge out Everton 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liverpool beat Everton 1-0 at Anfield, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 1.64 xG and Everton 0.85 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Everton landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.32 / defence 0.79 against Everton attack 0.73 / defence 0.87, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liverpool 56% | Draw 25% | Everton 19%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 64%, Everton 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liverpool's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Everton's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights