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Poisson model favours Liverpool (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Liverpool face Everton.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 30 as Liverpool welcome Everton to Anfield. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 2 April 2025 at 20:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Liverpool — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Anfield, Liverpool have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Premier League games this season, Everton have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Everton have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On current form, Liverpool have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

Liverpool hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 1 for Everton, with 2 draws in between.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The historical record gives Liverpool a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Liverpool in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

Everton in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Liverpool 63% versus Everton 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liverpool 64% | Everton 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Liverpool 1.64 xG and Everton 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liverpool attack 1.316 / defence 0.791 | Everton attack 0.735 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.464. Liverpool carry an above-average attack strength of 1.316 — their λ of 1.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Liverpool's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 67 Liverpool games / 67 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Liverpool 56% | Draw 25% | Everton 19%. Fair-value odds: Liverpool 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Everton 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Liverpool (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Liverpool are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Liverpool 70% | Everton 40%.

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