Liverpool 1-0 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Liverpool (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Liverpool face Everton.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 30 as Liverpool welcome Everton to Anfield. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 2 April 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Liverpool — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Anfield, Liverpool have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Everton have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Everton have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Liverpool have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
Liverpool hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 1 for Everton, with 2 draws in between.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The historical record gives Liverpool a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Liverpool in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Everton in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Liverpool 63% versus Everton 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liverpool 64% | Everton 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liverpool 1.64 xG and Everton 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liverpool attack 1.316 / defence 0.791 | Everton attack 0.735 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.464. Liverpool carry an above-average attack strength of 1.316 — their λ of 1.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Liverpool's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 67 Liverpool games / 67 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Liverpool 56% | Draw 25% | Everton 19%. Fair-value odds: Liverpool 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Everton 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Liverpool (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Liverpool are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Liverpool 70% | Everton 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liverpool vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Anfield • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Apr 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liverpool 56% | Draw 25% | Everton 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Liverpool 1.64 / Everton 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Liverpool attack 1.316 / def 0.791 | Everton attack 0.735 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Liverpool xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Everton xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Liverpool vs Everton kick off?
Liverpool vs Everton kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 2 April 2025 at Anfield.
What was the final score in Liverpool vs Everton?
Liverpool 1 - 0 Everton.
Where is Liverpool vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Anfield.
What competition is Liverpool vs Everton part of?
Liverpool vs Everton is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Liverpool vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Liverpool a 56% chance of winning, Everton a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Liverpool and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Liverpool vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Everton?
Record (7 meetings): Liverpool 4W | Draws 2 | Everton 1W.
What form are Liverpool and Everton in?
Liverpool (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Everton (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Liverpool's attack at 1.32x the league average against Everton's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Liverpool's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
56%
1.79
25%
4.06
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Liverpool xG
Total xG
2.48
0.85
Everton xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
4%
26.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 11.6 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Liverpool vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Liverpool and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Liverpool and 0.85 for Everton, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Liverpool vs Everton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 67 outings, Liverpool have picked up 2.27 PPG on a 45W 17D 5L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Everton's form line: 20W 22D 25L from 67 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-D.
Put side by side, Liverpool are the form team by 1.05 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Everton.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Liverpool have posted 2.52 PPG from 33 outings (26W 5D 2L).
On the road, Everton have gone 8W 11D 14L from 33 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Liverpool are averaging 2.31 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.07 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Liverpool have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liverpool
Current Season
Everton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Liverpool and Everton in coming into this match?
Liverpool have gone 45W 17D 5L in their last 67 games (2.27 PPG), while Everton have gone 20W 22D 25L in their last 67 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liverpool at home or Everton away?
Liverpool's home record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liverpool at home: 2.52 PPG; Everton away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Liverpool or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Everton in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Liverpool and Everton runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Liverpool have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2021, when Liverpool won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Liverpool's record when hosting Everton specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Liverpool
2
Draws
1
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Everton?
From 10 meetings on record, Liverpool have won 7, Everton have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Liverpool and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Everton 1-2 Liverpool.
Who has won more matches between Liverpool and Everton?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Liverpool 61%, Everton 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Liverpool) and 39% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Liverpool keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Everton in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liverpool home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Liverpool play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Liverpool's recent matches and 46% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Liverpool vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Liverpool's recent games and 39% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Liverpool edge out Everton 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat Everton 1-0 at Anfield, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 1.64 xG and Everton 0.85 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Everton landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.32 / defence 0.79 against Everton attack 0.73 / defence 0.87, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Liverpool 56% | Draw 25% | Everton 19%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 64%, Everton 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liverpool's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Everton's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.