🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Liverpool cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Crystal Palace.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liverpool beat Crystal Palace 3-1 at Anfield, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 1.61 xG and Crystal Palace 1.16 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Liverpool beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.21 / defence 0.92 against Crystal Palace attack 0.99 / defence 0.96, drawn from 71/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liverpool 46% | Draw 28% | Crystal Palace 26%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 63%, Crystal Palace 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liverpool's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Crystal Palace's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.37. That form edge translated into the three points. Liverpool (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights