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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Liverpool and Chelsea share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Anfield, Regular Season - 36, as Liverpool and Chelsea drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 1.98 xG and Chelsea 1.30 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Liverpool fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.24 / defence 0.93 against Chelsea attack 1.11 / defence 1.10, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liverpool 52% | Draw 24% | Chelsea 24%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 63%, Chelsea 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liverpool's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Chelsea's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Liverpool 1.95 PPG, Chelsea 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights