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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Liverpool cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Bournemouth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liverpool beat Bournemouth 4-2 at Anfield, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 1.78 xG and Bournemouth 1.34 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Liverpool beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.18 / defence 0.91 against Bournemouth attack 1.08 / defence 1.01, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liverpool 48% | Draw 23% | Bournemouth 29%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 63%, Bournemouth 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liverpool's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Bournemouth's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.47. Form held, and they took the win. Liverpool (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bournemouth (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights