Leicester vs West Ham – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Leicester cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over West Ham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leicester beat West Ham 3-1 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.24 xG and West Ham 1.50 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Leicester beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 0.75 / defence 1.13 against West Ham attack 0.94 / defence 1.08, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leicester 29% | Draw 29% | West Ham 41%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Leicester win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 63%, West Ham 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leicester's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

West Ham's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Leicester 1.69 PPG, West Ham 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leicester win broke the near-deadlock. Leicester (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights