Leicester vs West Ham – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Leicester's attack at 0.75x the league average against West Ham's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — West Ham's attack (0.94x) against Leicester's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 13/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Ham Win
29%
3.41
29%
3.39
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Leicester xG
Total xG
2.73
1.50
West Ham xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
7%
15.20
12%
8.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.7 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs West Ham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Leicester and West Ham expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Leicester and 1.50 for West Ham, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs West Ham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.