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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Tottenham edge out Leeds 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tottenham beat Leeds 1-2 at Elland Road, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 1.05 xG and Tottenham 1.47 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 0.84 / defence 0.99 against Tottenham attack 1.22 / defence 0.87, drawn from 6/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leeds 26% | Draw 28% | Tottenham 46%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 50%, Tottenham 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leeds's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Tottenham's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Tottenham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Leeds (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights