Leeds 0-1 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Leeds at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Leeds face Sunderland.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Sunderland travel to Elland Road to take on Leeds in Premier League (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 3 March 2026 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Leeds — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Leeds have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Leeds are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sunderland stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Sunderland have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Leeds at 1.10 PPG versus Sunderland's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Leeds have won 1, Sunderland 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Dec 2025, ended Leeds 1–1 Sunderland — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Leeds trading profile (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 55%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Sunderland trading profile (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leeds 47% versus Sunderland 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leeds 50% | Sunderland 45%). Note also that Sunderland surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Leeds recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 55% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leeds 1.62 xG and Sunderland 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leeds attack 0.996 / defence 1.098 | Sunderland attack 0.584 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.298. Sunderland's attack rating of 0.584 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from Leeds's last 28 games and Sunderland's last 28.
Result probabilities: Leeds 54% | Draw 29% | Sunderland 17%. Fair-value odds: Leeds 1.86 | Draw 3.42 | Sunderland 5.93. Leeds hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Leeds are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leeds offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Leeds 70% (last 10 home games) | Sunderland 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leeds vs Sunderland | Competition: Premier League, matchday 29 | Venue: Elland Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 March 2026 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leeds 54% | Draw 29% | Sunderland 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Leeds 1.62 / Sunderland 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Leeds attack 0.996 / def 1.098 | Sunderland attack 0.584 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Leeds (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Leeds xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Sunderland xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Leeds vs Sunderland FAQs
What time does Leeds vs Sunderland kick off?
Leeds vs Sunderland kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Tuesday 3 March 2026 at Elland Road.
What was the final score in Leeds vs Sunderland?
Leeds 0 - 1 Sunderland.
Where is Leeds vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Elland Road.
What competition is Leeds vs Sunderland part of?
Leeds vs Sunderland is a Premier League fixture (matchday 29) (England).
Who is favourite to win Leeds vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Leeds a 54% chance of winning, Sunderland a 17% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Leeds the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leeds vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Leeds and Sunderland will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Leeds vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Leeds's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Sunderland's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Leeds's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Leeds's last 28 games and Sunderland's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leeds Win
54%
1.86
29%
3.42
17%
5.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Leeds xG
Total xG
2.46
0.83
Sunderland xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
5.93
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
3%
30.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.6 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Leeds vs Sunderland Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Leeds vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Leeds and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Leeds and 0.83 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Leeds vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 74 outings, Leeds have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 36W 23D 15L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Sunderland's form line: 29W 24D 21L from 74 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Leeds on 1.77 PPG, Sunderland on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Leeds have posted 2.16 PPG from their last 37 home games (24W 8D 5L).
On the road, Sunderland have gone 11W 11D 15L from their last 37 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leeds come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Leeds are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.15 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Leeds have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leeds
Current Season
Sunderland
Current Season
Leeds (Home) vs Sunderland (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Leeds
Current Season
Sunderland
Current Season
❓ Leeds vs Sunderland Form FAQs
What form are Leeds and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Leeds have gone 36W 23D 15L in their last 74 games (1.77 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 29W 24D 21L in their last 74 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leeds at home or Sunderland away?
Leeds's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leeds at home: 2.16 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Leeds or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leeds have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Sunderland in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2023. They cover more than one competition — Championship, Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Leeds's record when hosting Sunderland specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Leeds
4
Draws
2
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Leeds vs Sunderland H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Sunderland?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Leeds have won 1, Sunderland have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Leeds and Sunderland last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Sunderland 0-0 Leeds.
Who has won more matches between Leeds and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Leeds are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leeds 46%, Sunderland 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Leeds) and 46% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Leeds keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Sunderland in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leeds home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Leeds vs Sunderland Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Leeds and Sunderland matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Leeds's recent matches and 46% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Leeds and Sunderland matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Leeds's recent games and 46% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leeds and Sunderland matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Leeds's recent matches and 62% of Sunderland's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sunderland defy the odds to beat Leeds 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Leeds 0-1 at Elland Road, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 1.62 xG and Sunderland 0.83 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Leeds fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 1.00 / defence 1.10 against Sunderland attack 0.58 / defence 1.13, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leeds 54% | Draw 29% | Sunderland 17%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Sunderland win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 50%, Sunderland 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leeds's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Sunderland's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leeds 1.77 PPG, Sunderland 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Leeds (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Sunderland (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Premier League fixtures — matchday 29
All Premier League fixtures →
More UK football predictions →