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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Leeds and Liverpool share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leeds and Liverpool finished level at 3-3 at Elland Road, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 1.58 xG and Liverpool 1.38 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Leeds beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Liverpool outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 0.99 / defence 1.03 against Liverpool attack 1.07 / defence 1.03, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leeds 42% | Draw 24% | Liverpool 33%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 56%, Liverpool 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leeds's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Liverpool's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Leeds 1.90 PPG, Liverpool 2.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Leeds (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Liverpool (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights