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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Leeds run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Crystal Palace.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leeds beat Crystal Palace 4-1 at Elland Road, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 1.12 xG and Crystal Palace 1.46 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Leeds beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 1.06 / defence 1.14 against Crystal Palace attack 0.99 / defence 0.69, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leeds 28% | Draw 28% | Crystal Palace 44%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Leeds win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 56%, Crystal Palace 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leeds's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Crystal Palace's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.46. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Leeds (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.44 average — above their attacking norm. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights