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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Leeds and Bournemouth share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Elland Road, Regular Season - 6, as Leeds and Bournemouth drew 2-2 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 1.09 xG and Bournemouth 1.18 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Leeds beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bournemouth outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 0.75 / defence 0.90 against Bournemouth attack 1.13 / defence 1.06, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leeds 33% | Draw 29% | Bournemouth 37%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 49%, Bournemouth 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leeds's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.

Bournemouth's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.53. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Leeds (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights