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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Arsenal run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Leeds.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arsenal beat Leeds 0-4 at Elland Road, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 1.21 xG and Arsenal 1.27 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Leeds fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Arsenal outscored their 1.27 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 1.10 / defence 1.00 against Arsenal attack 1.03 / defence 0.75, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Leeds 32% | Draw 34% | Arsenal 34%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 52%, Arsenal 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Leeds's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Arsenal's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Leeds 1.82 PPG, Arsenal 2.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arsenal win broke the near-deadlock. Leeds (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arsenal (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights