🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Ipswich cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Chelsea.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ipswich beat Chelsea 2-0 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 0.76 xG and Chelsea 2.44 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ipswich beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chelsea landed 2.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 0.56 / defence 1.25 against Chelsea attack 1.31 / defence 0.91, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ipswich 8% | Draw 19% | Chelsea 73%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a Ipswich win, an outcome the model had rated at just 8% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 57%, Chelsea 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ipswich's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Chelsea's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ipswich 1.55 PPG, Chelsea 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ipswich win broke the near-deadlock. Ipswich (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Chelsea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights