Ipswich vs Bournemouth – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bournemouth edge out Ipswich 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bournemouth beat Ipswich 1-2 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.01 xG and Bournemouth 1.75 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 0.58 / defence 1.12 against Bournemouth attack 1.12 / defence 1.06, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ipswich 21% | Draw 26% | Bournemouth 54%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 56%, Bournemouth 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ipswich's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Bournemouth's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ipswich 1.62 PPG, Bournemouth 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Bournemouth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights