Ipswich vs Bournemouth – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ipswich's attacking strength (0.58x league average) is weighed against Bournemouth's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Bournemouth's attack (1.12x) against Ipswich's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
21%
4.86
26%
3.86
54%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.76
1.75
Bournemouth xG
4.86
21%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
1.87
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
17%
5.74
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
4%
27.89
19%
5.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.75 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.