Hull City 1-1 Brentford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brentford at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hull City vs Brentford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Brentford travel to MKM Stadium to take on Hull City. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Hull City have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Hull City have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hull City's home record at MKM Stadium: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MKM Stadium.
Brentford — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Brentford have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Brentford have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Hull City) versus 1.20 (Brentford). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Hull City trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Brentford trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 56% versus Brentford 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 53% | Brentford 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.44 xG and Brentford 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.905 / defence 1.026 | Brentford attack 1.123 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.246. Data: 7 Hull City games / 45 Brentford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 37% | Draw 26% | Brentford 37%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Brentford 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hull City 50% | Brentford 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Brentford | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 37% | Draw 26% | Brentford 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Hull City 1.44 / Brentford 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.905 / def 1.026 | Brentford attack 1.123 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Brentford xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Brentford kick off?
Hull City vs Brentford kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Brentford?
Hull City 1 - 1 Brentford.
Where is Hull City vs Brentford being played?
The match is being played at MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Brentford part of?
Hull City vs Brentford is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Brentford?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 37% chance of winning, Brentford a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Brentford?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Hull City and Brentford will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Brentford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hull City and Brentford in?
Hull City (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Brentford (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hull City's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Brentford's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Brentford's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brentford Win
37%
2.69
26%
3.92
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.87
1.44
Brentford xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
9%
11.30
9%
11.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Brentford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Hull City and Brentford expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Hull City and 1.44 for Brentford, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Brentford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hull City's recent record stands at 20W 11D 14L from 45 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hull City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Brentford, meanwhile, have gone 16W 15D 14L across 45 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-D-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Brentford, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hull City on 1.58 PPG, Brentford on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hull City have managed 9W 7D 6L from 22 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brentford's away record stands at 6W 6D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hull City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hull City are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Brentford are on 1.51 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Early Season
Brentford
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Brentford in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 20W 11D 14L in their last 45 games (1.58 PPG), while Brentford have gone 16W 15D 14L in their last 45 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Brentford away?
Hull City's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.55 PPG; Brentford away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Hull City or Brentford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Brentford in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 25 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Hull City
1
Draws
0
Brentford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Brentford?
From 1 meetings on record, Hull City have won 0, Brentford have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Brentford last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2026, when Hull City 1-1 Brentford.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Brentford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 54%, Brentford 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Hull City) and 50% (Brentford).
On the defensive side: Hull City keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Hull City have failed to score in 27% of games; Brentford in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Brentford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Brentford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Hull City's recent matches and 54% of Brentford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Brentford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Hull City's recent games and 50% of Brentford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Brentford tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Brentford in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City and Brentford share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City and Brentford finished level at 1-1 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.44 xG and Brentford 1.44 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.91 / defence 1.03 against Brentford attack 1.12 / defence 1.05, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 37% | Draw 26% | Brentford 37%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 53%, Brentford 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Brentford's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.58 PPG, Brentford 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.