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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Fulham edge out Tottenham 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fulham beat Tottenham 2-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.85 xG and Tottenham 1.31 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.16 / defence 1.05 against Tottenham attack 0.96 / defence 1.11, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fulham 48% | Draw 27% | Tottenham 25%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 58%, Tottenham 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fulham's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Tottenham's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fulham 1.40 PPG, Tottenham 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights