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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Fulham edge out Nottingham Forest 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fulham beat Nottingham Forest 1-0 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.82 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.21 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fulham fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Nottingham Forest landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.14 / defence 1.16 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.81 / defence 1.02, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fulham 51% | Draw 24% | Nottingham Forest 25%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 57%, Nottingham Forest 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fulham's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fulham 1.37 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights