🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Fulham at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fulham vs Nottingham Forest encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Fulham welcome Nottingham Forest to Craven Cottage. Kick-off is set for Monday 22 December 2025 at 20:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Fulham — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fulham at Craven Cottage this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Across all Premier League games this season, Nottingham Forest have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Nottingham Forest's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Fulham) versus 1.30 (Nottingham Forest). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Fulham: 6 wins from 8 previous clashes against 2 for Nottingham Forest, with 0 draws across those contests.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2025, ended 2–1 with Fulham winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fulham and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

Fulham in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).

Nottingham Forest in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 68% versus Nottingham Forest 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 57% | Nottingham Forest 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.82 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.137 / defence 1.156 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.813 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.290. Data: 54 Fulham games / 54 Nottingham Forest games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fulham 51% | Draw 24% | Nottingham Forest 25%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Nottingham Forest 4.00. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Fulham at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fulham 50% | Nottingham Forest 40%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights