Fulham 3-1 Newcastle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Newcastle (36%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Fulham face Newcastle.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Craven Cottage plays host to Fulham versus Newcastle in Premier League (matchday 5). Kick-off: Saturday 21 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Fulham's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Fulham have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Newcastle (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Newcastle have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Newcastle are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Fulham's last 10 home games and Newcastle's last 10 away games) — Fulham have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Newcastle in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Newcastle have the stronger record — 4 wins to Fulham's 0, with 0 draws.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Apr 2024, ended Fulham 0–1 Newcastle — a Newcastle win.
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Newcastle half-time and goal-timing data (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 50% versus Newcastle 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 60% | Newcastle 69%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Fulham surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Newcastle have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.42 xG and Newcastle 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.001 / defence 0.914 | Newcastle attack 1.051 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.494. Data: built from Fulham's last 42 games and Newcastle's last 42.
Result probabilities: Fulham 35% | Draw 28% | Newcastle 36%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.82 | Draw 3.53 | Newcastle 2.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Newcastle at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Newcastle if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fulham's last 10 home games and Newcastle's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fulham 60% (last 10 home games) | Newcastle 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Newcastle | Competition: Premier League, matchday 5 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 21 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 35% | Draw 28% | Newcastle 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Fulham 1.42 / Newcastle 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.001 / def 0.914 | Newcastle attack 1.051 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.494 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Newcastle xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fulham vs Newcastle FAQs
What time does Fulham vs Newcastle kick off?
Fulham vs Newcastle kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Newcastle?
Fulham 3 - 1 Newcastle.
Where is Fulham vs Newcastle being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Newcastle part of?
Fulham vs Newcastle is a Premier League fixture (matchday 5) (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Newcastle?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 35% chance of winning, Newcastle a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Newcastle?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Fulham and Newcastle will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fulham vs Newcastle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fulham's attack at 1.00x the league average against Newcastle's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Newcastle's attack (1.05x) against Fulham's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from Fulham's last 42 games and Newcastle's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
35%
2.82
28%
3.53
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.85
1.44
Newcastle xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
8%
11.84
9%
11.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fulham vs Newcastle Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Newcastle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Fulham and Newcastle expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Fulham and 1.44 for Newcastle, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Newcastle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fulham come into this having played 42 games, going 14W 10D 18L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-D.
On the other side, Newcastle sit at 1.67 PPG from 42 outings (21W 7D 14L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Newcastle carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Fulham — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Fulham's home form reads 10W 3D 8L across their last 21 home games, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Newcastle have taken 1.14 points per game from their last 21 away games (7W 3D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Newcastle's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fulham are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Newcastle are on 2.17 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Newcastle in 62%.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Early Season
Newcastle
Early Season
Fulham (Home) vs Newcastle (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fulham
Early Season
Newcastle
Early Season
❓ Fulham vs Newcastle Form FAQs
What form are Fulham and Newcastle in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 14W 10D 18L in their last 42 games (1.24 PPG), while Newcastle have gone 21W 7D 14L in their last 42 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Newcastle away?
Fulham's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.57 PPG; Newcastle away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Newcastle won Fulham 1-4 Newcastle on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Newcastle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Fulham
1
Draws
5
Newcastle
Recent Meetings
❓ Fulham vs Newcastle H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Newcastle?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Fulham have won 3, Newcastle have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Fulham and Newcastle last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Fulham 1-1 Newcastle.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Newcastle?
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Newcastle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 43%, Newcastle 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Fulham and 71% for Newcastle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Newcastle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fulham vs Newcastle Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fulham and Newcastle matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Fulham's recent matches and 67% of Newcastle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fulham and Newcastle matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Fulham's matches and 71% of Newcastle's.
Do Fulham and Newcastle matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Fulham's recent matches and 76% of Newcastle's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fulham cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Newcastle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Newcastle 3-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.42 xG and Newcastle 1.44 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fulham beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.00 / defence 0.91 against Newcastle attack 1.05 / defence 1.03, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 35% | Draw 28% | Newcastle 36%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Fulham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 60%, Newcastle 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Newcastle's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Newcastle arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Fulham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Newcastle (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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