Nottingham Forest 0-1 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nottingham Forest at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nottingham Forest vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Nottingham Forest welcome Fulham to The City Ground. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Nottingham Forest have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Nottingham Forest have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nottingham Forest's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at The City Ground this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The City Ground this season.
Fulham — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Fulham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fulham's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Nottingham Forest) versus 1.30 (Fulham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Nottingham Forest, 4 for Fulham and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2024, ended 3–1 with Nottingham Forest winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Nottingham Forest trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Fulham trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 65% versus Fulham 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 51% | Fulham 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.30 xG and Fulham 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.899 / defence 0.982 | Fulham attack 0.849 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.445. Data: 43 Nottingham Forest games / 43 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 36% | Draw 33% | Fulham 31%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Fulham 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nottingham Forest as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nottingham Forest 70% | Fulham 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: The City Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 36% | Draw 33% | Fulham 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 54% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.30 / Fulham 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.899 / def 0.982 | Fulham attack 0.849 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Fulham xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Fulham kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at The City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Nottingham Forest 0 - 1 Fulham.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at The City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Fulham part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 36% chance of winning, Fulham a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Fulham?
Record (6 meetings): Nottingham Forest 2W | Draws 0 | Fulham 4W.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Fulham in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Fulham (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nottingham Forest's attack rating (0.90) and Fulham's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Nottingham Forest's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
36%
2.81
33%
3.02
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.50
1.21
Fulham xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
11%
9.36
9%
11.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.21 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nottingham Forest's recent record stands at 11W 12D 20L from 43 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fulham, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 18L across 43 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fulham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nottingham Forest on 1.05 PPG, Fulham on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nottingham Forest have managed 5W 7D 9L from 21 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fulham's away record stands at 4W 7D 10L across 21 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.44 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nottingham Forest have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Early Season
Fulham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Fulham in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 11W 12D 20L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while Fulham have gone 15W 10D 18L in their last 43 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Fulham away?
Nottingham Forest's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.05 PPG; Fulham away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Dec 2023, when Fulham won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nottingham Forest's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Nottingham Forest
1
Draws
7
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Fulham?
From 10 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 2, Fulham have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Nottingham Forest 0-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 71%, Fulham 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Nottingham Forest) and 57% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Fulham in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Nottingham Forest's games and 57% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Nottingham Forest's recent games and 57% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Fulham defy the odds to beat Nottingham Forest 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Nottingham Forest 0-1 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.30 xG and Fulham 1.21 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nottingham Forest fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.90 / defence 0.98 against Fulham attack 0.85 / defence 1.00, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 36% | Draw 33% | Fulham 31%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Fulham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 51%, Fulham 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Fulham's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.05 PPG, Fulham 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Fulham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.